CATDOG: Assessing Risk
It is important to note that the risks and potential failures of the first attempt were predicted fairly accurately and early on. By using cause and effect analysis, we were able to identify some critical issues. However, these problems arise in Proof of Concept (PoC) and new product development (NPD) and are tricky to navigate.
Amid development, it is hard to fully comprehend the scale of ongoing issues due to a lack of operational data or feedback. Consider intentional blindness; research shows that we need attention to be directed to register what we see.1 We run the risk of riding out a storm to help make a full assessment, which is a problem that proves costly.
Referring to the original situation, it is possible that Program sponsors established exit strategies to smooth over project failures and contain risk. A narrative helps re-strategise and recover. This may explain the criticisms that engineering faces. One proposition is to formulate a risk assessment around the CATDOG analysis approach.
Start by observing the Opportunities, the Minus points, and the Plus points that help overcome or navigate around identified problems. A handy mnemonic for this is St!OMP. Alternatively, there are similar approaches like Plus, Minus, and Interesting (PMIs) by de Bono(1994), who also penned lateral thinking. Otherwise, try Fear Setting (Ferris, 2017) and plan around worst-case scenarios.
Footnotes
(Mack, 2003)↩︎